In September 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to hit new highs, increasing 2% MoM and 52% YoY. The main driver of the sustained production growth remained the spodumene-derived supply, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical plants in full swing. Meanwhile, driven by continued strong downstream demand, the overall industry supply capacity also improved simultaneously.
By raw material: Spodumene, salt lake, and scrap-derived routes all saw some increases, while lepidolite continued to pull back.
Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased 5% MoM. On one hand, good downstream demand performance stimulated some flexible production lines to switch to lithium carbonate production, contributing some incremental output. Some other lithium chemical plants also saw production increases driven by demand. On the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates, stimulated by futures hedging profits, further pushing production growth.
Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 15% MoM. Previously, a leading mine in Jiangxi province had suspended production due to mining permit issues, and its related lithium chemical plant maintained minimal production in August using ore inventory and spot purchases. As ore inventory was gradually consumed, coupled with limited circulation volume of domestic lepidolite ore, output continued to decline. Production at other lepidolite-based lithium chemical enterprises remained relatively stable.
Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 10% MoM. Output increased significantly due to the ramp-up of new production lines, while other enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.
Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased 7% MoM, mainly benefiting from the continued positive demand for lithium carbonate, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises, although the overall production scale remains limited.
Currently, the lithium carbonate market still faces uncertainty regarding mining policies in Jiangxi province. From a pessimistic perspective, if related mines face shutdowns, brief minimal production could be maintained using inventory. Furthermore, new production lines are being commissioned in both the spodumene and salt lake segments, suggesting total lithium carbonate production in October still has growth potential and may break the 90,000 mt mark. SMM will continue to closely monitor the specific implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi.
Demand side, the EV market saw rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEVs; the ESS market experienced strong supply and demand with persistently tight supply. Battery cell and cathode material production schedules for October continue to look positive, and lithium carbonate is expected to see significant destocking in October.
